The Development of the American Economy (DAE) program was one of the first research programs launched by Martin Feldstein in ...

The International Trade and Investment (ITI) Program holds three regular meetings annually, in winter, spring, and at the NBER Summer Institute. The ITI Program has 85 research associates, 11 faculty ...

This disagreement reflects a 60-year history of misapplication of the neoclassical theory of investment to interpret empirical work and guide policy analysis. In this article I reconsider the ...

We develop and quantify a novel growth theory in which economic activity endogenously shifts from material production to quality improvements. Consumers derive utility from goods with differing ...

In recent years, field experiments have reshaped policy worldwide, but scaling ideas remains a thorny challenge. Perhaps the most important issue facing policymakers today is deciding which ideas to ...

Using a regression discontinuity design and administrative data, we study a Danish policy that cut welfare benefits for refugees, increasing crime among affected individuals. Linking refugees to ...

Social desirability bias (SDB) is a pervasive threat to the validity of survey and experimental data. Respondents might often misreport sensitive attitudes and behaviors to appear more socially ...

A college degree offers a pathway to economic mobility for low-income students. Using a multi-site randomized controlled trial combined with administrative and survey data, we demonstrate that ...

U.S. and European banking institutions were hit by a wave of distress in March 2023. Policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic reacted with an array of interventions, some targeting individual ...

We study the short-run effects of import tariffs on GDP and the trade balance in an open-economy New Keynesian model with intermediate input trade. We find that temporary tariffs cause a recession ...

A nationwide panic forced President Franklin Roosevelt to declare a banking holiday in March 1933. The government reopened banks sequentially using a process that sent noisy signals about banks’ ...

We analyze the impact of credit risk and higher interest rates on U.S. bank solvency, expanding on the work of Jiang et al. (2023). Our variation of their bank-run model demonstrates how credit losses ...